Technology timeline

White Paper
Issue 1 (21/11/01)
Published by BTexact Technologies -
a division of British Telecommunications plc
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British Telecommunications plc, 2002.
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The future looks ever more exciting each year. Technology development is
 still accelerating and an increasing number of new fields are being created
and exploding new ideas onto the market.

The future is a hard to predict but here at BTexact we have always believed
 that inventing the future is the best way to create it. One thing is
certain in the distant future - the world will be a very different place.
One tool we produce to help alleviate uncertainty about the future is our
BTexact technology timeline. Paul McIlroy produced the first timeline in
1991 and it has been updated about once every two or three years. This is
the 5th edition, and the biggest yet. A new editor Ian Neild has joined me
on this edition and brought a welcome freshness to the timeline.

The timeline is produced mainly to give BT researchers and managers a view
of what the operating environment is likely to contain at any future date,
so that our products and services can be better targeted to the needs of the
customer. But we have also found that many people outside the company find
it useful too, so we always try to make it as free of technical jargon as
possible. What must be remembered by anyone preparing for the future is that
technology change isn't very important in itself.What matters is what this
change enables or destroys.

Timeline targets include our business customers, government, media and many
private individuals. Extracts of previous versions have appeared in numerous

Several sources of information are used for the timeline. The largest single
source is the previous edition, where most of the entries are still in the
future and still valid.We have only had to change a few of the dates, which
we hope is an indication that we were guessing well. Many items from our
last edition have happened on cue, and have therefore been removed, but many
more new developments have come into view that weren't so obvious last time
round.We obtain these new entries from industry journals and bulletins,
scouring the Internet, chatting to experts, and some just by relaxing and
thinking about the future. The arguments that the timeline has produced in
the past have often proved to be useful to us and we hope that this will
have the same affect on you.

Experience has shown us that telecomms and computing industry companies see
the future in quite different terms, so this time we are grateful to Jeff
Harrow, formerly of Compaq, whose newsletters have provide us with a view
from the computing industry and a number of the new entries.

We have also modified and extended the 'wildcard' section, based on John
Petersen's excellent work in his book 'Out of the Blue'. Although wildcards
are defined as events that can happen at almost any time, for most there is
a date before which they couldn't happen, since their mechanisms do not yet
exist.We have estimated the dates at which each wildcard becomes feasible.We
have also changed the focus of this to illustrate the acceleration of the
downside of the technology development. Each new technology brings many
benefits but also has a price. It is clear from this section that we are
rapidly inventing new ways of destroying ourselves, and that the risk to
mankind is increasing exponentially. Of course, the far future is much
harder to imagine than the near future, so the number of dangerous
 technologies listed actually drops off in our list after a couple of
decades, but we could reasonably assume that by the time we get there, we
will be able to see many more potential dangers. Such a trend is cause for
concern. Even though the problems are mostly soluble by even more advanced
technologies, there will generally be a time lag between a problem arising
and a solution being implemented, so the overall risk still increases with
time. Technology timeline

However, the intention of the timeline as always is to illustrate the
 potential lying ahead for beneficial technologies. Not all will be
successful in the marketplace. Some won't ever be implemented at all, but as
the rest come on stream, our lives will improve in many ways.We will have
more variety of entertainment, better health, greater wealth, and probably
better social wellbeing. We will have more time saving devices and
ultrasmart computers will do most of our admin, but the future world will
offer so much more opportunity to be productively and socially busy that we
will have even less free time than today! If we think of this as living life
to the full rather than in terms of stress, then the future looks good.

We hope you enjoy reading our timeline as much as we enjoyed producing it.

Ian Pearson Ian Neild
email: email:

Artificial Inteligence & Artificial Life

AI doctors                                                          2001
 Virus aimed at toys released                                        2002
 Chat show hosted by robot                                           2003
 Computer agent personal shoppers                                    2003
 First synthetic (but organic) life form                             2003
 Domestic appliances with remote (networked) intelligence            2003
 Smart Barbie insists on allowance for clothes and accessories       2003
 Real time language translation                                      2004
 Toys with network based intelligence                                2004
 Confessions to AI priest                                            2004
 AI teachers in school                                               2004
 Action man toys engage in war games over networks                   2004
 Security Barbie used for locating lost offspring                    2004
 Shopping Barbie acts as personal shopper for children               2004
 Machine use of common sense inference                               2005
 Behaviour alarms based on human mistake mechanisms                  2005
 Computers that write most of their own software                     2005
 Intelligent robotic pets                                            2005
 AI chatbots indistinguishable from people by 95 % of population     2005
 First artificial electronic life                                    2006
 First organism brought back from extinction                         2006
 Software trained rather than written?                               2006
 Domestic appliances with personality and talking head interface     2007
 Systems to understand text and drawings (e.g. patent information)   2007
 People have some virtual friends but don't know which ones          2007
 AI students                                                         2007
 AI models used extensively in business management                   2010
 Artificial Nervous System for autonomous robots                     2010
 Highest earning celebrity is synthetic                              2010
 Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input           2010
 AI houses which react to occupants                                  2010
 25 % of TV celebrities synthetic                                    2010
 Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities           2011
 Most software written by machine                                    2011
 Home manager computer                                               2011
 Machine use of human-like memorising, recognising, learning         2012
 Computer agents start being thought of as colleagues instead of
 tools                                                               2013
 Satellite location devices implanted into pets                      2015
 Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions
 Machine use of human-like creativity                                2015
 Leisure activities for intelligent software entities released       2015
 Human knowledge exceeded by machine knowledge                       2017
 Electronic pets outnumber organic pets                              2020
 Electronic life form given basic rights                             2020
 Artificial insects and small animals with artificial brains         2020
 Remote control devices built into pets                              2020
 Ubiquitous embedded intelligence                                    2020
 Virus wipes out half of the electronic pet population               2021
 Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computer      2025
 Robots physically and mentally superior to humans                   2030
 Living genetically engineered Furby (TM, Tiger Electronics)         2040

 Biotechnology, health & medical

 Electronic implants used to stimulate muscles in disabled people    2001
 Complete genome sequence of 5 individuals                           2003
 Kitchen food tester that identifies presence of food poisoning
 bacteria                                                            2003
 Smart pills with chip dispensing drugs                              2003
 Instant electronic diagnosis of illnesses                           2004
 Retinal implants linked to external video cameras                   2004
 Telepresence extensively used in rural clinics                      2004
 Brief human suspended animation                                     2005
 Determination of whole human DNA base sequence                      2005
 Electronic patient records become valuable data mines               2005
 Electronic prescriptions reduce fraud and improve speed             2005
 Synthetic retinal implants for simple vision                        2005
 Designer babies                                                     2005
 All patients tagged in hospitals                                    2005
 Expert systems used extensively in GP surgeries                     2008
 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems                               2008
 Neural networks used for patient appointment management             2008
 Artificial heart (lab-cultured or entirely synthetic)               2010
 Devices roaming within blood vessels under own power                2010
 Multimedia patient records                                          2010
 Genetic screening widely used                                       2010
 Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records        2010
 Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record             2010
 Use of human's own tissues to grow replacement organs               2010
 Widespread genetic intervention programmes for animals and plants   2010
 Direct electronic pleasure production                               2010
 Online surgeries dominate first line medical care                   2010
 Orgasm by email                                                     2010
 Quiz shows screen for implant technologies                          2010
 Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves              2012
 Some implants seen as status symbols                                2012
 Fine particle beam gene engineering                                 2013
 Shower body scan                                                    2015
 Artificial kidneys                                                  2015
 Artificial lungs                                                    2015
 Custom (GM) foods for particular medical conditions                 2015
 Gene-gel stimulation of regrowth of natural teeth on demand         2015
 Genetic links of all 90% of diseases identified                     2015
 Individual's genome part of their medical record                    2015
 Artificial brain cells                                              2017
 Artificial liver                                                    2020
 Electronic memory enhancement                                       2020
 Many new forms of plants and animals from genetic engineering       2020
 Only 15% of deaths worldwide due to infectious diseases             2020
 Nanobots in toothpaste attack plaque                                2020
 Fully functioning artificial eyes                                   2024
 Artificial brain implants                                           2025
 Artificial peripheral nerves                                        2025
 Genetic, chemical and physiological bases of human behaviour
 understood                                                          2025
 Artificial legs                                                     2025
 Intelligence enhancement by external means                          2030
 First Bionic Olympics                                               2030
 Brain 'add-ons'                                                     2033
 Artificial brain                                                    2035

 Business & education

 Pull advertising dominates over push                                2003
 Half of government services delivered electronically                2005
 Paperless working (at least internally) the norm in most UK business
 Products widely customised                                          2005
 85% of American management personnel are knowledge workers          2005
 80% of US homes have PCs                                            2005
 3rd world teleworkers with clockwork PCs and LEO satellite
 communications                                                      2005
 Virtual reality used to teach science, geography, art and history   2005
 Widespread use of virtual reality for education and recreation      2005
 B2B market worth $8.5 Tn                                            2005
 Nomadic information companies paying no corporation tax             2006
 Activators make any household object                                2006
 Lifestyle brands dominate                                           2007
 Network based learning causes polarisation in classes - streaming is
  essential                                                          2007
 Global classes used for multicultural immersion                     2007
 All government services delivered electronically                    2008
 Universal monitoring of business transactions                       2008
 Email used to communicate with most social service claimants        2008
 Inter-business financial transactions all electronic                2010
 Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate                2010
 Superstar teachers use telepresence to lecture to dispersed classes 2010
 Personalised degrees quantised to individual lectures               2010
 95% of people in advanced nation computer literate                  2010
 Telematics market hits $50Bn                                        2010
 AI Entity passes GCSE                                               2010
 AI Entity passes A Level                                            2011
 Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement       2012
 AI Entity gains Degree                                              2013
 AI companies illegally cloned                                       2013
 Academic learning is argued to be unnecessary in the age of smart
 machines                                                            2013
 AI Entity gains Masters Degree                                      2014
 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation    2015
 Integrated taxation in all transactions                             2015
 More people using telework centres than home working                2015
 Telework centres double as community resources                      2015
 Police force privatised in many nations                             2015
 AI Entity gains PhD                                                 2016
 AI teachers get better results than most human teachers             2017
 AI Entity awarded Nobel Prize                                       2018
 Less than 10% of UK workforce in manufacturing                      2020
 AI Entity sets up higher level prize                                2020
 Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computers     2025


 Asia-Pacific overtakes US in internet users                         2005
 Worldwide deaths due to HIV/AIDS peak at 1.7 million                2006
 Less than 20% of UK workforce in manufacturing                      2010
 25% of UK workforce teleworking at least 2 days a week              2010
 World population reaches 7 billion                                  2011
 India population hits 1.2 billion                                   2015
 population growth slows to 1% (1.3% today)                          2015
 400M people live in megacities of over 10M inhabitants              2015
 China GDP overtakes EU GDP                                          2015
 Retirement age raised to 70                                         2020
 60% of the world's population living in cities                      2025
 70 million over 65s in USA (20%) with 9 million over 85s            2030
 3Bn people water stressed (<1700 cu m per capita per year)          2030
 3.5 Bn people water stressed (400M in 2001)                         2040
 1.42 billion over 65s in the world                                  2050
 World population reaches 10 billion                                 2065


 1.5m flat screens for 2000                                        2002
 Personal display tablets for TV, magazines etc.                     2002
 Holographic animated or video advertisements (few second video
 clips)                                                              2003
 Roaming displays (accepting input from many different mobile
 sources)                                                            2003
 Net access using touch sensitive displays in kitchen white goods    2003
 Cybersphere 'holodeck', using giant 'hamster ball' on air bearings  2003
 Displays with image quality comparable to paper                     2004
 Polymer screen advertising billboards                               2005
 Video walls - single screens 2m across                              2005
 Personalised adverts on TV and Radio                                2005
 Voice control of many household gadgets                             2005
 Separate volume controls for different people in room               2010
 3D TV without need for special glasses                              2012
 Holographic displays for continuous video                           2015
 3D video conferencing                                               2015
 Holodecks using box room lined completely with polymer screens      2018
 Use of free space holograms to convey 3D images                     2020
 Holographic TV                                                      2025


 Large area amorphous solar cells with efficiency > 20%              2001
 Home fuel cell based 7kW generator                                  2001
 LiMnO2 batteries with 200Ah/kg storage                              2002
 Solar chimney power station (1.5km tall)                            2004
 Clothes collect and store solar power                               2005
 Most portables powered by fuel cells                                2005
 Multi layer solar cells with efficiency over 50%                    2008
 Button sized gas turbine generators for portable device power       2010
 Solar reflector satellites bringing sunlight to major Northern
 cities                                                              2010
 Nuclear power plants supply 16% of energy in Russia and Eastern
 Europe                                                              2010
 Worldwide energy consumption 50% greater than 1993                  2010
 Commercial magma power stations                                     2012
 Catalytic water decomposition by sunlight                           2015
 Seabed gas hydrate crystals used as fuel source                     2015
 Worldwide oil consumption is 100M barrels of oil per day            2015
 Systems based on biochemical storage of solar energy                2020
 Space solar power stations                                          2030
 Wave energy providing up to 50% of UK requirements                  2040
 Use of nuclear fusion as power source                               2040

 Environment & countryside

 Satellite policing of farming subsidies                             2003
 Totally managed world logistics systems                             2005
 Complete list of 1.5 million known species available on web         2005
 Growth of scientific environmentalism                               2005
 Rural databases for animals and crops                               2005
 Effective management of the organic environment                     2005
 New engineered organisms used to produce chemicals                  2005
 Virtual farming co-operatives                                       2007
 Extensive remote sensing use in environmental management            2010
 Effective prediction of most natural disasters                      2010
 Out-sourced vegetable plots                                         2010
 All domestic animals tagged                                         2010
 Landfills in London and surrounding region full                     2012
 Insect-like robots used for crop pollination                        2012
 Deep underground cities in Japan                                    2020
 30% of world's arable land will be salty                            2020
 Widespread use of sensors in the countryside                        2020
 70% of landfills in USA full                                        2025
 Carbon dioxide fixation technologies for environment protection     2030
 Artificial precipitation induction & control                        2035
 Global environmental management corporations                        2040
 Another 10% of the world's forests lost                             2050
 50% of world's arable land will be salty                            2050
 Ozone hole disappears                                               2050
 Between 15 and 95cm rise in sea level                               2100

 Home & office

 Positioning sound at any point in space                             2001
 Doorstep videophone allowing remote interaction with callers        2001
 Electronic notebook with contrast as good as paper                  2002
 Electronic paintings                                                2003
 Chips on food packaging tell when food is at its best               2003
 Devices registered in homes and won't work if stolen                2003
 Hydraulic chair for VR games                                        2003
 Garden audio systems                                                2004
 Smart paint available (contains chips)                              2004
 3d fax                                                              2005
 Video photo frames                                                  2005
 Fibre optic plants in gardens                                       2005
 Video tiles                                                         2005
 Emotional objects, switches etc around home                         2007
 Digital bathroom mirror                                             2008
 Magazine tablets                                                    2008
 Electronic newspapers                                               2008
 Personalised response from household gadgets                        2008
 Mood sensitive light bulbs                                          2010
 Anti-noise technology built into homes                              2010
 Homes made in prefabricated modules                                 2010
 Electronic wallpaper                                                2010
 Chips in packaging control cooking                                  2010
 Neighbourhood video surveillance networks                           2010
 Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle                 2010
 Domestic positioning systems                                        2012
 Kitchen rage caused by electronic gadgets                           2013
 Electronic response based on conversational inference               2013
 Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight             2015
 Virtual windows                                                     2015
 Nanotechnology toys                                                 2015
 Robotic plant care with health monitoring chips on plants           2015
 Traditional pubs using technology to enhance illusion of tradition  2015
 Kaleidoscopic windows using OLEDs                                   2015
 Air quality monitoring in homes                                     2018
 Kaleidoscopic flowers using electronic inks                         2020
 Patio display panels and slabs to simulate beach                    2020
 Insect sized robots banned in gardens due to effects on wildlife    2020
 Anti noise technology in gardens                                    2020
 3D home printers                                                    2020
 Nanotechnology plants                                               2025

 Life & leisure in a cyberspace world

 Hybrid rollercoasters using real and virtual effects                2001
 Automatic music composition in any style                            2002
 Software Lego (Individual bricks contain software objects)          2002
 Use of talking head technology for conferencing                     2002
 Avatar cosmetic surgery                                             2003
 Cyberspace make-up                                                  2003
 Various forms of electronic addiction                               2003
 People have cyberspace wardrobe                                     2004
 Frequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders
 Cheap miniature cameras cause social backlash                       2005
 Plane zorbing, jumping out of planes in inflatables                 2005
 Toy soldiers with video camera eyes enrich play                     2005
 Theatres gain extra revenue by allowing internet attendance         2005
 Living area use of virtual reality scenes                           2005
 Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places     2005
 1Bn internet users                                                  2005
 People reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information
  products                                                           2007
 On line voting in UK                                                2007
 Net chat sites insist on proof of identity                          2008
 Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture           2008
 Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV                2008
 VR overlays on real world                                           2008
 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem             2010
 Government introduce legislation to protect local community IP      2010
 Loneliness in aged population greatly reduced by network communities
 National UK decisions influenced by electronic referenda            2010
 Worldwide population of over 65s increases by 1 million monthly     2010
 Cybercommunity with 100 million people                              2010
 Make-up by numbers                                                  2010
 Social software, organising functions etc                           2010
 Holodeck' meeting room                                              2010
 1st Xtreme Olympics                                                 2012
 Shadow democracy used in community networks                         2012
 Orgasmatron                                                         2012
 VR escapism is a major social problem                               2015
 Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally               2015
 Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration             2015
 Most towns echoed in cyberspace                                     2016
 Major pensions crisis                                               2019
 Digital bore filter technology                                      2020
 Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)            2020
 Digital image overlays enhance relationships                        2020
 Global voting on some issues                                        2024
 Network based telepathy                                             2025
 Creation of The Matrix                                              2025
 VR extensively used in retirement homes                             2025
 Restricted capability home genetic engineering kits                 2030
 Experience recording                                                2035
 Real' toy soldiers using nanotechnology                             2035

 Machine input/output

 Robotic kitten interface                                            2002
 One chip, multi-speaker voice recognition                           2002
 Air mouse and air typing                                            2003
 Tactile sensors comparable to human sensation                       2004
 Odour and flavour sensors comparable to human                       2005
 Full voice interaction with machine                                 2005
 Voice synthesis quality up to human standard                        2005
 Talking head technology used in public terminals                    2005
 TV internet users overtakes computer-based users                    2005
 emotionally responsive toys and robots                              2006
 Smelly telly using chips with small reservoirs of chemicals         2010
 Voice interface for home appliances                                 2010
 Highly integrated biosensors                                        2017
 Biosensors capable of processing information                        2008
 Computer link to biological sensory organs                          2018
 Odour and flavour sensors comparable to dog                         2020
 Thought recognition as everyday input means                         2025
 Full direct brain link                                              2030

 Materials & electronic devices

 1cm inertial accelerometers built into electronic devices           2002
 Optical inter-chip connection                                       2002
 All polymer flexible integrated circuits                            2002
 Spherical silicon integrated circuits                               2003
 Number of PCs sold, 160 Million                                     2003
 Chips with clock speed of 10GHz                                     2003
 Polymers with lower resistance than copper at room temperature      2005
 Composite materials based on carbon nanotubes                       2005
 Semiconductor devices based on 0.01 micron technology               2005
 Integrated logic devices with switching speed below 1 picosecond    2005
 1Bn Bluetooth devices worldwide                                     2005
 Material with refractive index variable by 0.1 in electric or
 magnetic field                                                      2007
 Self organising adaptive integrated circuits                        2007
 Chips with 1 billion transistors                                    2009
 Use of polymer gels for muscles, bioreactors, information processing
 Quantum effect interferometer for flux measurement                  2010
 Use of carbon fullerenes for on chip interconnect                   2010
 Molecular sized switches                                            2010
 Chips with 10 billion transistors                                   2013
 Atomic customisation of materials                                   2015
 Intelligent materials with sensors, storage and effectors           2015
 Use of nanotechnology                                               2015
 Single electron technology devices                                  2015
 Membranes with active transport and receptors                       2017
 Chips with 100 billion transistors                                  2018
 Materials exhibiting superconductivity at room temperature          2020
 Smart skin for intelligent clothing and direct human repair         2020
 Manufacture of long diamond fibres                                  2020

 Processing, memory and storage

 200GByte hard drives                                                2002
 Disposable Paper Cellphone ($10)                                    2002
 Room temperature reconfigurable molecular switch                    2002
 22 hours of CD quality audio on a CD (MPEG4 format)                 2002
 Single sheet PC or TV with processing built into display            2002
 Notebooks with P4 chips                                             2002
 Use of molecular computing                                          2003
 Integrated circuits on 1mm silicon spheres                          2003
 Memory with access time of 1 ns                                     2003
 11 terabytes credit card sized storage for $50                      2003
 37GByte DVD                                                         2004
 Holographic storage with 1 terabyte capacity and 1 Gbit/s retrieval
  rate                                                               2004
 100 TFLOPS computer                                                 2004
 200 companies with petabyte storage requirements                    2004
 Sony GS3 chip, 250M transistors, 2000 bit internal bus,
 2.6Gpixels/sec                                                      2004
 1terabyte per cu cm storage density                                 2005
 Solid State replacement for CD                                      2005
 IBM Blue Gene computer with 1 petaflops power                       2005
 ANT based operating system                                          2005
 Retrieval from 1TB database within 10 seconds                       2006
 10GHz chips                                                         2006
 Cell PDA and games machine chip, <0.1 micron, 1TeraFLOPS            2006
 Optical neuro-computers                                             2007
 Quantum computer                                                    2007
 Computers used for creativity enhancement                           2010
 Supercomputer as fast as human brain                                2010
 1 Terabit memory chip                                               2010
 DNA storage device                                                  2010
 Optical card storage - replaces CD,VHS, audiotape, magnetic disk    2010
 Quantum dot memory using 20nm dots, 50MBytes in a full stop         2010
 Supercomputers with speed exceeding 1 ExaFLOPS                      2010
 Use of analogue co-processors in PCs                                2010
 MP3 Net downloads dominate over CD distribution                     2010
 1.8 billion transistor, 30GHz chips, 1TIPS                          2010
 DNA computer                                                        2012
 Desktop computer as fast as human brain                             2015
 100GB non volatile erasable RAM in few cm square                    2015
 1 Petabit memory chip                                               2018
 AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain             2018
 Molecular memory with density of 1 TB/sq. cm                        2020
 Parallel computer with 1000 million processors                      2020
 National Library of Congress available in sugar cube sized device   2030


 First Robolympics held in Japan                                     2001
 Electronic fish in aquariums                                        2001
 Robotised space vehicles and facilities                             2005
 Fractal shape-changing robots                                       2005
 Fire fighting robots that can find and rescue people                2006
 Totally automated factories                                         2007
 Autonomous robots with environmental awareness sensors              2008
 Anthropomorphic robots used for factory jobs                        2008
 Robotic security & fire guards                                      2008
 40% of paid workforce will be women (worldwide)                     2010
 Insect-like robots used in warfare                                  2010
 Robotic dolls and pets account for 10 % of domestic telecomm traffic
 Self monitoring infrastructures using smart materials and sensors.  2010
 Robots for almost any job in home or hospital                       2012
 Fleet of garden robots for plant and lawn care and tidying          2014
 Housework robots - fetch, carry, clean & tidy, organise etc.        2015
 Robots for guiding blind people                                     2015
 Reconfigurable buildings                                            2015
 Cybernetic use in sports                                            2015
 Housework robots for cleaning, washing etc                          2016
 Self diagnostic self repairing robots                               2017
 Actuators resembling human muscles                                  2019
 Robotic mail delivery                                               2020
 Robotic exercise companion                                          2020
 Micromechanical gnomes                                              2020
 More robots than people in developed countries                      2025
 Cybernetic gladiators                                               2025
 Micro-Mechano fractal construction kit                              2028

 Security, law,war

 Automatic hacker detection using pattern matching                   2001
 Face recognition in public video surveillance systems               2001
 Fire detection by odour or vibration                                2002
 Almost all transmissions encrypted                                  2003
 Peoples courts on internet for minor disputes                       2004
 Crime and terrorism mainly computer based                           2005
 Use of quantum cryptography                                         2005
 VR use in courtrooms for evidence                                   2005
 Soldiers weapons fired remotely                                     2005
 War fought over water supply                                        2005
 Cracking of public key cryptography within a few seconds            2006
 Data mining use in trials                                           2007
 First net war between cyber-communities                             2007
 Remote override capability on planes                                2007
 Logic checkers highlighting contradictory evidence                  2008
 Household access by facial recognition                              2010
 Universal ID cards in UK                                            2010
 Jargon translators                                                  2010
 Computer advice to jurors on probability issues                     2010
 Criminal tagging augmented with video and audio sensors             2010
 Extensive use of electronics to monitor police behaviour            2010
 Most weapons attack systems rather than injure people               2010
 Most fighters and bombers flown remotely                            2010
 Gene dependent weaponry                                             2010
 Attacks based on facilitating natural disasters                     2010
 Phasers issued to police, using laser/taser hybrid                  2012
 Automated stenographers                                             2014
 Plastic stealth tank                                                2015
 ID cards replaced by biometric scanning                             2015
 Emotion control chips used to control criminals                     2030
 Asteroid diversion used as weapon                                   2040

 Shopping & money

 Automatic measurement of body using laser scanning booths in shops  2002
 Automated catalogue shopping using Calling Line Identification      2002
 Laser body scanning units in clothes shops                          2002
 Cash badges                                                         2004
 Net bring and buy exchanges                                         2004
 Local warehousing for local distribution systems                    2004
 Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets               2005
 Personal shopping tablets                                           2005
 Global electronic currency in use                                   2005
 Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash                 2007
 Shops start being paid by manufacturers as try-on outlets           2007
 Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street             2007
 10% of UK shopping is electronic                                    2008
 Personal banking replaced by agents                                 2012
 Global barter sub-economy                                           2012
 Most tickets electronic                                             2012
 In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides             2013
 Personal taxation at point of sale                                  2015
 25% of UK shopping is network based                                 2015


 First all woman space crew                                          2002
 Sub-orbital space tourism                                           2002
 Mars robotic aircraft flight celebrating Wright Brothers' 100
 anniversary                                                         2003
 Supercollider to create and study Higgs Boson completed             2003
 X38 'Lifeboats' on international space station                      2003
 Europa orbiter launch (search for water on Europa)                  2003
 Cassini reaches Saturn & releases Huygens lander into Titan's
 atmosphere                                                          2004
 Space tug to take satellites into high orbits                       2005
 Private space mission to examine asteroid with a view to space
 mining                                                              2005
 Next generation space telescope launch                              2007
 Mars lander returns soil samples to Earth                           2008
 Weapon systems based on Ionespheric heating                         2010
 Helium 3 mining on moon                                             2012
 First manned mission to Mars                                        2015
 Space hotel for 350 guests, using recycled Shuttle fuel tanks       2015
 Near Earth space tours                                              2015
 OWL (Overwhelmingly Large Telescope) completed with 100m mirror     2016
 Regular manned missions to Mars                                     2020
 Production, storage and use of antimatter                           2025
 Space factories for commercial production                           2025
 Start of construction of manned Mars laboratory                     2030
 Use of human hibernation in space travel                            2030
 Moon base the size of small village                                 2040
 Orbiting international space station completed 2003-                2006
 Return of Keo satellite                                             51998


 Cordless home networks using Bluetooth, Piano or Jini               2001
 Photonic crystal fibre                                              2001
 Go-anywhere personal numbering                                      2002
 70M European computers connected to Internet                        2002
 Use of passive picocell                                             2003
 1 billion cellular users worldwide                                  2003
 10 Terabit/s on single fibre                                        2003
 ANT based services                                                  2003
 Home intranet                                                       2003
 Global terabit network                                              2003
 UMTS launch in U.K.                                                 2003
 1 Gbyte optical fibre loop memory                                   2005
 Video download over network at 10 x normal speed                    2005
 Global broadband fibre based network                                2005
 ANT based network management                                        2005
 Intranets dominate over Internet                                    2005
 Neighbourhood intranets                                             2005
 1 billion mobile communication devices worldwide                    2005
 Video surveillance built into phone boxes                           2005
 60% of internet accesses from mobile devices                        2005
 50% of traffic on mobile networks will be data                      2005
 Domestic demand reaches 100Mbit/s per home                          2010
 90% of calls tetherless                                             2010
 All optic integrated logic, switching below 1 ps                    2010
 Use of high density wavelength multiplexing for trunk               2010
 Use of WDM in local access                                          2015
 Internet achieves 75% penetration in UK                             2015
 Electronic ATM switches largely obsolete & replaced by photonic
  versions                                                           2020
 Simultaneous data delivery in the City                              2020
 Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world                            2020

 Transport & travel

 Intelligent cruise control keeping distance automatically           2001
 Automated highway prototype                                         2002
 Intelligent cat's eyes with built in speed cameras                  2002
 Integrated RTI system                                               2003
 Blimp cargolifters, carrying 160 tonnes, 6000 miles at 60mph        2004
 Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells                                 2004
 Cellular phone locations used in traffic management system          2004
 Ships with super conductive electromagnetic thrust                  2005
 Hydrogen fuelled executive jets (cryoplanes)                        2005
 Fully automatic ships able to navigate and dock automatically       2005
 Assisted lane keeping systems in trucks and buses                   2005
 Packetised' automatic rail transport systems                        2005
 Smart tickets for navigation through airports                       2005
 Superblimp troop carriers 800 x 250ft carrying 500 tons             2006
 All new cars fitted with positioning systems as standard            2007
 Pollution monitor chips built into cars                             2008
 Cars with automatic steering                                        2008
 Scramjet' engine powered planes flying at Mach 10                   2008
 Urban car co-pilot                                                  2010
 High Speed Civil Transport supersonic jet, 300 passengers, 1500mph  2010
 All new cars fitted with basic cellular comms with automated
 distress system                                                     2010
 Tourism in some areas limited to net access                         2010
 GPS and engine management systems linked to limit speed
 automatically                                                       2010
 Road trains using adhoc networking                                  2010
 Bus routes based on star and ring architectures                     2015
 Automatic driving makes car pooling feasible                        2015
 Number of air travellers passes 5 billion                           2017
 Driverless truck convoys using electronic towbar                    2018
 Total world travel passes 50 trillion passenger km                  2020
 Need to book time slots to use some key roads                       2020
 1 Billion cars worldwide                                            2025
 Total world travel passes 100 trillion passenger km                 2050

 Wearable technology

 Smart clothes that can alter their thermal properties               2001
 Emotional jewellery                                                 2002
 Audio jewellery                                                     2002
 Camera on flexible mounting linked to toolkit headset               2002
 Video jewellery                                                     2003
 Comm-badge linked to virtual retinal display                        2003
 Wide range of wearable electronic devices                           2003
 Virtual retinal displays, glasses based                             2003
 Folding watch computers                                             2003
 Cameras built into glasses recording what we see                    2004
 Polymer video screens built into clothes                            2005
 Emotion badges                                                      2005
 Jewellery that changes shape and colour                             2005
 Portable translation device for simple conversation                 2007
 Kaleidoscopic clothes using materials with embedded pigment
 micro-capsules                                                      2007
 Video tattoos                                                       2010
 Active contact lens                                                 2010
 Alpha-wave induction sets                                           2012
 Micro-actuators built into clothes for sensory feedback from
 computers                                                           2012
 Thought recognition used in sleep enhancement                       2015
 Computer enhanced dreaming                                          2020
 Emotion control devices                                             2025
 Dream link technology                                               2030

 Addendum:Wild cards (that could happen almost anytime)

 (by Earliest potential occurrence)

 Asteroid or comet hits earth                                        BC
 Massive solar flare wipes out life on earth                         BC
 Natural evolution of superbug                                       BC
 Climatic Instability, Turn For The Worst                            BC
 Extraordinary US West Coast Natural Disaster                        BC
 First Unambiguous Contact with Extraterrestrial Life -- The Arrival
  of ETs                                                             BC
 Human Mutation                                                      BC
 Ice cap breaks up -- Oceans rise one hundred feet                   BC
 Mass Migrations                                                     BC
 Return of the Messiah                                               AD
 Another Chernobyl                                                   1950
 Collapse of the United Nations                                      1950
 Global nuclear war                                                  1960
 Environmental pressure causes evolution of superbug                 1980
 Aids or similarly deadly disease mutates and becomes transmittable
  by air                                                             1990
 Bugs resistant to all known antibiotics                             1990
 Rules Change: Economic and/or Environmental "War Criminals" Are
 Prosecuted                                                          1995
 Terrorists Go Biological                                            1995
 US Economy Fails or collapse of the dollar                          1995
 Civil nuclear war                                                   2000
 Global economic collapse causes mass starvation and conflict        2000
 Global civil war                                                    2000
 Space exploration creates superbug                                  2000
 Civil War Between Soviet States Goes Nuclear                        2000
 Collapse of World's Fisheries                                       2000
 Computer/Chip/Operating System Maker Blackmails Country or World    2000
 End of Intergenerational Solidarity                                 2000
 Gulf or Jet Stream Shifts Location Permanently                      2000
 International Financial Collapse                                    2000
 Large-scale lengthy disruption of national electrical supply        2000
 Major Break in Alaskan pipeline - Significant ecological damage     2000
 Major Chaos in Africa                                               2000
 Nuclear Terrorist Attack on United States or Europe                 2000
 Rise of an American Dictator                                        2000
 Social breakdown in US or Europe                                    2000
 Stock market crash                                                  2000
 Human Cloning Perfected, Human Genetic Engineering Arrives          2002
 Accidental creation of lethal organism during research              2005
 Antitech backlash destroys systems chaos and starvation           2005
 Deliberate biotech self-destruct by malicious biotech researcher    2005
 Major genetic engineering accident                                  2005
 Terrorism rises beyond capability of government systems             2005
 Transgenic accident                                                 2005
 Encryption Invalidated                                              2005
 Hackers Blackmail Federal Reserve                                   2005
 Biotech terrorist attack goes wrong                                 2010
 Evolved crime destroys human systems                                2010
 Global civil war between cybernations                               2010
 Hackers wipe out networks, causing chaos and mass starvation        2010
 The hostile arrival of ETs detecting our transmissions              2010
 Viruses become immune to all known treatments                       2010
 End of the Nation State                                             2010
 Foetal Sex Selection Becomes the Norm                               2010
 Computers and robots become superior to humans                      2015
 Self-aware machine intelligence                                     2015
 Third world exodus destabilises global system                       2015
 Computers/Robots think like humans                                  2015
 Collapse of the sperm count                                         2020
 Global epidemic with high speed travel and high population density  2020
 Global famine caused by manmade environmental change                2020
 Hybrid nanotech-organic creatures                                   2020
 International social collapse - widespread civil conflict           2020
 Major information systems disruption                                2020
 Major technology or science research accident                       2020
 Rise of a global machine dictator                                   2020
 Total social breakdown in US or Europe                              2020
 Fuel cells replace internal combustion engines                      2020
 Life Expectancy Approaches 100                                      2020
 Nanotechnology takes off                                            2020
 Megacities cause global epidemic                                    2025
 Nanotech development by individuals                                 2025
 Nanotechnology accident                                             2025
 Networks become conscious and won't co-operate                      2025
 Second World Nation Demonstrates Development of Nanotech Weapons    2025
 Elimination by smart machines - terminator                          2030
 Nanotechnology war                                                  2030
 Humans access net directly, become an integral part of              global
 information system.                                                 2030
 No-Carbon Economy Worldwide                                         2030
 Creation of Star Trek's Borg                                        2040
 Fatal climatic instability                                          2040
 Global electromagnetic communications disrupted for foreseeable
 future                                                              2040
 Religious environmentalism destroys environment                     2040
 Political correctness creates new dark age                          2050
 Whole generation unable to effectively read, write, think, and work 2050
 Human genetic engineering creates hostile super-race                2070
 Humans assimilated into net                                         2075
 Invention of elimination phaser                                     2075
 Time travel invented                                                2075
 Faster than light travel                                            2100
 Immortality chip - people move into cyberspace                      2100

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